Decision Quality Blog

Two stories in USAToday, both from the sport section, offer a nice lesson in decision making. The first tells how Card’s manager Tony La Russa has defied decades of conventional thinking that says you should place your most dangerous hitter in the fourth slot.

Tony La Russa’s strategy had worked just as he intended.

By placing a position player behind the pitcher in the lineup, La Russa believes he increases the chances of having runners on base for his best run producer, Pujols.

So far, signs point to a beneficial effect from batting the pitcher eighth, the latest unconventional tactic in a 30-year managerial career marked by counterintuitive thinking.

The Cardinals, 9-4 and atop the National League Central this season, have gone 37-32 while improving their key offensive numbers since La Russa revived an experiment he first tried in 1998. In both instances, he was trying to energize a lethargic offense.

If you don’t follow baseball, the only part you need to focus on is that La Russa is having success with an alternative his competitors either refuse to consider, or have considered and dismissed. You would also want to notice that he didn’t pull this alternative out of a hat. He actually did some research. If you do follow baseball, then you have to marvel at the elegance of the idea. The real objective is to increase your odds of having people on base when your most productive hitter comes up to bat. Batting "first" is only a relevant concept in the first inning. Beyond that, it’s all in how the game plays out.

Story two. For years, the Oakland A’s have played high quality baseball with one of the smallest payrolls in the game. Skeptics and naysayers can rightfully point out that they haven’t won a World Series in quite some time, but there’s a useful story in here. In fact three.

"Nobody is ready to make any pronouncements," Oakland Athletics general manager Billy Beane says, "but we’re sure pleased with the start."

Who’d imagine that four months after trading their biggest stars, the Florida Marlins, Baltimore Orioles and the A’s would be in first place?

The Marlins, whose $21 million payroll after trading All-Star third baseman Miguel Cabrera and All-Star starter Dontrelle Willis to Detroit is dwarfed by everyone else in the game, are the lone team in the National League East (7-5) with a winning record. The A’s, who dumped their ace, right fielder and center fielder, are first in the American League West (8-5). The Orioles, who traded their ace and former MVP shortstop, had a half-game lead Monday in the AL East.

Again, for those who don’t follow baseball, the New York Yankees pay one buy more than the entire Marlin’s team. The moral of the story? There are probably many, but the one I’m after here tracks with my first story. There are always divergent, different, off-center, counterintuitive options available. It makes sense to give those ideas more than a passing wave.

Tags: MLB, baseball, Tony La Russa, Oakland A’s, Florida Marlins, Baltimore Orioles, options, alternatives, counterintuitive, decision making